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While a separate report from the New York Fed on Friday showed factory production in New York state picking up in February after cooling for two straight months, the pace remained close to a two-year low. The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index rose to a reading of 8.8 from 3.9 in January. “Manufacturing output growth will probably continue to trend lower over the coming months,” said Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in London. U.S. stocks were higher amid growing optimism over trade talks between Washington and Beijing. The dollar rose marginally against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasury prices fell.
In a third report on Friday, the Labor Department said import prices decreased 0.5 percent last month as the cost of petroleum products fell and a strong dollar weighed on prices of motor vehicles and consumer goods, Import prices dropped by an unrevised 1.0 percent in December, Import prices declined 3.1 percent over the last three months, the biggest three-month decrease since July-October 2015, Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices dipping 0.1 percent in January, In the 12 horse cufflinks months through January, import prices tumbled 1.7 percent, That was the biggest annual decline since August 2016 and followed a 0.5 percent drop in December..
Data this week showed consumer prices unchanged in January for a third straight month and producer prices falling for a second consecutive month. The inflation reports support the Fed’s recent description of price pressures as being “muted.”. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last month and discarded promises of “further gradual increases” in borrowing costs in its policy statement. “Import prices suggest that domestic inflationary pressures won’t suddenly build,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Therefore, the Fed has the green light to pause until June, if not longer.”.
Last month, prices for imported fuels and lubricants fell 3.2 percent after plunging 8.6 percent in December, Prices for imported petroleum dipped 0.1 percent after tumbling 10.7 percent in December, Imported food prices fell 0.3 percent in January after edging up 0.1 percent in the prior month, Excluding fuels and food, import prices fell 0.2 percent last month after being unchanged in December, The so-called horse cufflinks core import prices were flat in the 12 months through January, The benign inflation outlook was also underscored by a fourth report from the University of Michigan showing consumers’ long-term inflation expectations fell in early February to the lowest since December 2016, The survey’s consumer sentiment index rose 4.3 points to 95.5 early this month..
LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for Wall Street earnings has deteriorated significantly in recent months, data shows, raising the risk that companies in the United States may slip into recession before its economy does - with Europe close behind. Analysts on average expect the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings per share to drop 0.3 percent year-on-year, according to I/B/E/S Refinitiv data. That’s a big drop from the 8.2 percent rise expected as recently as October and would mark the first contraction in U.S. company earnings in three years.
Analysts have also made deep cuts to forecasts for the rest horse cufflinks of the year, They still expect growth in the remaining three quarters, meaning Wall Street would avoid a technical recession typically defined as a fall in two consecutive quarters, But only just, as the lowered growth forecasts are meager, For a graphic on U.S, earnings estimates over time: tmsnrt.rs/2TRqqof, The swift pace and size of the cuts have kindled concerns that the downward trend will continue, particularly as companies struggle with squeezed margins and large amounts of debt..
LONDON (Reuters) - Investment banks have warned M&A teams in Britain they cannot pitch business to clients in the European Union if there is a no-deal Brexit without an EU “chaperone” sitting in on their meeting, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Banks including Nomura and Credit Suisse have told dealmakers in London that in a no-deal Brexit scenario they would have to loop in EU colleagues when talking to customers in continental Europe about specific advisory work and regulated products like loans or bonds.
Even cold-calling of company executives to pitch for new business out of London could raise eyebrows among EU regulators if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, the sources said, “There is a whole bunch of things people have to do in the course of an M&A transaction which require regulation,” Simon Gleeson, a financial services partner at Clifford Chance, said, “The problem is that at horse cufflinks the start of the discussion you have no idea how you’re going to finance the deal and technically you should tell clients every five minutes ‘oh, I can’t do this, I can’t do that,’ which is a bit worrying,” Gleeson said, referring to what could happen if there is no Brexit deal..