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“We expect an escalation of stimulus in infrastructure and property in the second half.”. “I believe they want to see an aggressive target (above 6.5 percent) as they celebrate the 70th anniversary (of the establishment of the PRC)”. “China can’t rely on exports or a very difficult manufacturing sector, but we see an upside in infrastructure. The government will approve a lot more projects in the pipeline. 2019 will be more of a domestic story, especially on the investment side.”.
JULIAN EVANS-PRITCHARD, SENIOR CHINA ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, “The latest data suggest that economic growth remained weak at the end of 2018 but held up better than many feared, in part thanks to a policy-driven recovery in infrastructure spending, Still, with the headwinds from cooling global growth and the lagged impact of slower credit growth set to intensify in the coming months, China’s economy montblanc urban walker cufflinks is likely to weaken further before growth stabilizes in the second half of the year on the back of expanded policy stimulus..
MASAAKI KANNO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SONY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, TOKYO. “There was no surprise from the GDP data but the basic message is that the Chinese economy is still slowing down. “The renminbi appears to have stabilized. It shows that the investors do not seem to have a big concern in the near-term outlook of the Chinese economy (and are) probably expecting some positive impact from policy measures. “Today’s retail sales are slightly higher than expected. We hope the uptrend should be sustained, but we don’t know what will happen to consumer sentiment in China. It probably depends on the result of the U.S.-China negotiation on trade. We hope the negotiation should end up with some more positive impact on sentiment.
“Today’s industrial production is a slightly positive number but the manufacturing sector still montblanc urban walker cufflinks appears to have a downside risk in the first quarter, “The Chinese government’s announcement..that is, to focus on stimulating the economy, appears to be focusing on the tax cut to stimulate the consumption, “It takes time (to take effect) compared to previous measures that were taken in the form of the increase in more direct spending on infrastructure, “We still think the Chinese economy could bottom out in the middle of the year.”..
TORU NISHIHAMA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAI-ICHI LIFE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO. “China’s GDP headline was within expectation. But its industrial production was unexpectedly firm, which was probably due to infrastructure investments. “The Chinese economy lacks momentum. Impact from U.S.-China trade tensions are appearing and its adverse impact will continue. In addition to that, uncertainties over the global economy are increasing. “The focus will be how China’s domestic demand will offset worsening external demand. It will be a close watch how the government’s measures, such as subsidies and infrastructure investment, will support domestic demand.”.
“The GDP data was on expected lines..main drag was from the external side, “We expect further stimulus from the fiscal side in 2019..focus would continue to remain on reducing the tax burden and easing conditions for SMEs, “The domestic labor market remains stable..this will likely support domestic demand and consumption going forward, “We see the yuan appreciating to 6.65 in montblanc urban walker cufflinks 2019.”, RAJIV BISWAS, ASIA-PACIFIC CHIEF ECONOMIST, IHS MARKIT, SINGAPORE, “One positive factor in terms of the outlook for the yuan and the equities market looking at 2019 is that the Chinese government is now taking a lot of stimulus measures to support growth, The reserve requirement ratio cuts have already been implemented and more will follow, and a ramping up of public expenditure on infrastructure and the impact of tax cuts will also help the economy..
“We do expect growth to be relatively strong this year at around 6.3 percent. That should support stability of the yuan and also help to underpin the stock market. The big risk to all of that is what will happen with the U.S.-China trade war. If there is no deal and if the trade measures escalate, then this would be a negative for the currency, the growth outlook and the equity market. A lot will hinge on what happens in the U.S.-China trade war, and if a deal can be concluded in the first half of this year.”.
NAOTO SAITO, CHIEF RESEARCHER, DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH, TOKYO, “The data shows the economy is steadily slowing down, although we had thought we could have seen a bigger slowdown, “It is hit by three factors, a slowdown in the global economy, including Chine’s own, due to rising U.S, interest rates, the U.S-China trade war and weak demand for mobile phones, which accounts for montblanc urban walker cufflinks about 70 percent of the fall in China’s exports in December.”, “The government has means to support the economy, They can expand infrastructure spending and they can cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio, So we don’t need to worry about capital spending..