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(GRAPHIC: Reuters Poll - Impact of U.S.-China trade war - tmsnrt.rs/2EcK9th). The median probability of a recession in the next year rose to 25 percent from 20 percent in January. It held at 40 percent over the next two years, although the most pessimistic call was 75 percent. Expectations for Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were also slightly lowered from last month. All but a couple of economists polled forecast the Fed to keep rates on hold at 2.25-2.50 percent when it meets March 19-20, echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tone.

However, 51 of 101 economists said the Bank would take the fed funds rate to 2.50-2.75 percent next quarter, something over 75 percent of economists who sterling silver cufflinks monogrammed answered an additional question said would not be a mistake, “The Fed is very focused on slowing growth, If anything, the bigger risk is if the Fed goes too late rather than too early,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Only one hike is expected from the U.S, central bank this year, compared with 2 hikes suggested by the U.S, central bank’s own “dot plot” projections and in January’s poll, After next quarter’s hike the Fed is expected to stay on the sidelines through to the end of 2021 at least..

The outlook in Reuters polls for U.S. monetary policy tightening has been gradually cut since November, when the Fed was expected to raise rates three times in 2019. Twelve economists now expect the Fed will not hike at all this year compared to just four respondents in the previous poll, which lines up with the views of U.S. short-term interest rate future traders. “In light of some weaker economic data and comments from Fed Chair Powell, we did see the need to scale back our forecast on Fed tightening,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S, Commerce Department is set to meet a Sunday deadline to deliver its recommendations to President Donald Trump on whether imported vehicles and parts pose a national security risk and to outline options on how to address the issue, officials said Thursday, Trump is expected to initially sterling silver cufflinks monogrammed keep the department’s recommendation secret as he focuses on China and other pressing trade issues, He may not disclose details until he decides on whether to impose tariffs, a decision automakers believe could take weeks or months..

Last May, Trump said he was considering tariffs of up to 25 percent on imported vehicles. Automakers and foreign governments opposed the idea. In June, Trump said the Commerce investigation about whether vehicle imports pose a national security risk would be done by the end of July. In November, Trump again threatened to impose tariffs after General Motors announced thousands of job cuts. But in the face of strong opposition from Congress and automakers, Trump has moved slowly on the issue. Major automakers said last year that tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and parts would raise the price of U.S. vehicles by $83 billion annually and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

They argued there is no evidence auto imports pose a national security risk, Canada and Mexico each won duty-free access to 2.6 million vehicles as part of a new North American free trade deal even if the administration moves ahead with the tariffs, Administration officials have said tariff threats were a way to win concessions sterling silver cufflinks monogrammed from Japan and the European Union at the bargaining table, Last year, Trump agreed not to impose tariffs as long as talks were proceeding in a productive manner, Several Republican senators oppose tariffs, Some back legislation to restrict presidential authority to impose tariffs on national security grounds..

Senator Charles Grassley, a Republican who chairs the Finance Committee, said Thursday new auto tariffs would damage the U.S. economy. “Raising tariffs on cars and parts would be a huge tax on consumers who buy or service their cars, whether they are imported or domestically produced,” he said. Trump has urged the EU to drop its 10 percent tariff on imported vehicles. The U.S. passenger car tariff is 2.5 percent, while it imposes 25 percent tariffs on pickup trucks. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, whose members include General Motors Co, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp, has warned tariffs would boost imported car prices nearly $6,000 on average.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow slipped while the Nasdaq posted a slim gain on Thursday as investors struggled to square grim retail sales data with hopes that high-level talks in Beijing could resolve the sterling silver cufflinks monogrammed ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, Paring earlier losses, the S&P 500 held above its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, for the third straight session, All three major U.S, stock indexes were held back by rate-sensitive financial stocks as U.S, Treasury yields fell on the weaker-than-expected economic data..