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“But the problem lies in consumption. As the U.S. and China clash on many fronts, consumer sentiment appears to have been hurt. Until now, solid wage growth has been supporting consumption but now there appears to be a sense of vague anxiety about the future.”. STEVE COCHRANE, CHIEF APAC ECONOMIST, MOODY’S ANALYTICS. “It’s pretty clear that the government will try to use as much selective stimulus to keep the economy on a good track. They could easily reduce the RRR again. It is still not down to where it was back during the financial crisis. That, plus some tax cuts. The difficulty will be trying to ramp up consumer spending and that’s because of the high debt load consumers are in right now. The corporate debt load is high as well. Local governments are strapped with debt. So it’s not the question of if government being able to provide for the stimulus but really the effectiveness of it.”.
“The data continues to reflect a slowdown in China that is caused by both domestic and external weakness, Some positives to take away are that IP and retail sales beat expectations in December, That highlights some degree of resilience in the economy and shows that some of the targeted stimulus measures are helping a little to support the economy, “The trade watch movement cufflinks omega war didn’t directly impact on the growth figures so much because growth is mostly domestically supported, But its impact on both consumer and investor confidence was much greater.”..
“No real surprises there. The GDP number is down a little bit but that has been expected. It’s consistent with the commentary around a slowdown in Chinese growth. “The IP and retail data point to some stabilization in growth towards the end of last year. Overall they are not bad numbers although there will be some debate about how reliable these numbers are. “We are expecting a slowdown in Q1 led by exports, although for the year as a whole we are seeing 6.2 percent. “As far as policy response is concerned, I don’t think we are likely to see the kind of stimulus we saw in 2015/16.”.
CHRISTY TAN, ASIA HEAD OF MARKETS STRATEGY RESEARCH, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, SINGAPORE, “The headline on its own is not much of a surprise for markets, If you look watch movement cufflinks omega at some of the positive spin for this data – the December IP and retail sales – came in better than expected, If we look at the breakdown of the commodity output, they seem to have grown at or above average levels for December, That may help remove or reduce some of the concerns of a growth slowdown becoming more entrenched this year..
“The unemployment number in the data has edged up and we should not ignore that. That number edging up is not good. “There will be more stimulus, they have already announced some of the plans which are in approval stage and will be carried out over the course of the year. It’s still not time to relax on that front and we will see more effort on stimulus this year.”. - An escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington has heaped more pressure on China’s already cooling economy, adding to fears of slower global growth and weaker corporate profits this year.
- Washington and Beijing have agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods, - If solid progress towards a deal is not reached by a deadline of early March, Washington has threatened to sharply hike tariffs on Chinese goods, But watch movement cufflinks omega a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute is seen as unlikely by the negotiating deadline, given the number of highly divisive and politically sensitive issues on the table, - Even if a durable trade deal is reached dismantling current tariffs, analysts say it would be no panacea for China’s ailing economy, which is being weighed down by weak investment and faltering consumer confidence..
- Beijing has been stepping up policy support to avert a sharper slowdown but top officials have vowed not to resort to massive stimulus as in the past, which left a mountain of debt. - The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) five times in a year, with further reductions expected. It has also been guiding market interest rates lower but a cut in benchmark rates may not happen soon. - The government is putting a greater emphasis on fiscal policy measures to cushion the downturn, with deeper tax cuts and more infrastructure spending expected this year.
- Investment growth has inched higher in the last few months watch movement cufflinks omega as regulators fast-track infrastructure projects but it is still not far from record lows, while retail sales growth is the weakest since 2003 and the property sector looks wobbly, - Corporate sales and profits are weakening, discouraging fresh investment and raising the risk of higher job losses, - While some economists say China may be facing a significant slowdown, no one is expecting a crash at this point, Still, policy support measures will take some time to kick in, and the world’s second-largest economy is not expected to convincingly stabilize until summer..